BIS lecture: NASA's Plans for the Future

I went to a British Interplanetary Society lecture on Human Space Exploration: NASA's Plans for the Future. It was given by Dr Bill Barry who tries to put a friendly face forward for NASA in Europe.

The key points are a return to the Moon in 2018 using uprated Apollo-style vehicles. Interestingly, the heavy lift launcher, Ares V will use uprated Saturn J-2 engines, as well as the Space Shuttle External Tank & Solid Rocket Boosters. After 7 day stays, there are plans for 6 month stays a few years later as a base is built up.

Here are my rough notes:

- Complete ISS assembly

6 person crew, Soyuz mission every 3 months instead of every 6 months

- Retire Shuttle (2010) – after HST repair & 11 more ISS support missions

Constellation – NASA’s new human spaceflight capability programme

-Orion – get crews to ISS (from 2015)

-COTS – commercial orbital transport system. Get cargo or crew to ISS. NASA matches private money

3 DRMs

- Travel to ISS and stay at ISS for 6 months

- Moon mission for 7 day stay (4 crew)

- Moon mission for 6 month stay (4 crew) -

using

Ares 1 – launches Orion crew vehicle

Ares V – cargo vehicle, launches Earth departure stage and lander

Crew , transfer vehicle and lander rendezvous in LEO.

Lunar Themes

Not a destination driven programme – ie just return to the Moon for the sake of it

Civilisation – extend human presence for eventual settlement

Global partnerships – unite nations with common objectives (China, Russia, ESA, Germany, Italy, S. Korea have plans for lunar orbiters / landers)

Science – about Earth, solar system, universe and human place in them

Economics – lunar activities to benefit Earth

Exploration – test technologies for Mars and future missions

Public – Encourage students and develop workforce

Timeline

Lunar outpost – 2018

Ares 1 – first test launch – April 2009

Orion – first launch escape system test – late 2008

Heritage

Shuttle Solid Rocket motor & external tank, Saturn V (J-2) engine (70 tonnes to Moon in future vs 45 tonnes for Apollo)

Lunar architecture

Use solar power, then nuclear power on Moon

Outpost ( 6 month stay) after sorties (7 day stay). Develop and mature ISRU

Locate at pole (eg S. Pole, rim of Shackleton carter – almost continuous sunlight) & maybe water ice at bottom of crater

Questions

Q) 1000 people on Moon by 2040?

A) Expect first lunar landings 2018-2020. Launch 1 mission every 6 months. Build outpost 2-4 years. Mike Griffin (NASA administrator) thinks a Mars landing is feasible by 2035. Not having a destination programme increases robustness of funding ie can’t scrap programme if goal is abolished ie do missions based on funding, to Moon, Lagrange point, NEO, Mars whilst building up vehicle capability & technology

Q) What factors could slow down or speed up programme?

A) National pride and competition could re-start space race. Budget cuts could slow down programme. Russian monopoly on human transport to ISS after end of Shuttle could be a factor if they charge too much

Q) Too much use of heritage technology, not encouraging new technology?

A) Save money and lower risk. Encourage private sector by matched funding via COTS programme. Once these vehicles are built, NASA can develop technology. Also, Orion & Ares vehicles could be used to go to Mars. Griffin believes our children will still be using them.

Q) How can UK be part of this programme?

A) Canada has contributed with robot arm. Hence, it has had several astronauts. Griffin would like UK to be involved and has invested personal time discussing this. UK could participate through ESA or bilaterally. Architecture set up so other countries can join in.

Q) What about assembling Mars mission at ISS?

A) Technical features such as high inclination for Russian launches might limit this option

Q) Does Moon mission lack wow factor?

A) It is a PR issue. Different interest groups eg scientists, public

Q) Will UK be too late in joining human spaceflight?

A) NASA said UK doesn’t have to buy a whole Orion flight. Canada got astronauts for a small investment in robot arm. Other European countries got astronauts from relatively small technical contributions.